Analysis of the Possible Influence of Nuclear Energy Development Scenarios on the Scale of Inspection Activity to Maintain the Nonproliferation Regime

An analysis of the influence of possible nuclear energy developmentscenarios on the scale of inspection activity required tomaintain the nonproliferation regime is presented. The study wasdone based on nuclear energy development models by estimatingthe dynamics of nuclear materials growth and compositionchange for different development scenarios and strategies ofnuclear materials management in the nuclear fuel cycle. Theanalysis was performed both for the evolutionary developmentscenario, assuming conservation of the present-day infrastructureand extrapolation of the current trends of nuclear energy developmentinto the future, and for the innovative developmentscenario, assuming introduction of innovative nuclear reactorsystems into the nuclear energy mix and solution of urgent problemsof nuclear energy by means of these systems.