Taking the Long View: Rehearsing Possible Futures

In last quarters column, I described how scenario planning, a strategic planning tool that is being implemented by many organizations, can be used to rehearse, and prepare for possible alternative futures in the context of the complex world we live in today. In particular, when we look across the geo-political landscape of the global security environment today1, one can become quickly overwhelmed with many uncertainties, and lose sight of the big picture strategies that might be useful to prepare for alternative futures. When carefully identified, critical uncertainties, or combination of critical uncertainties, can provide insight into events or actions that might dramatically change the path to the future. If an organization has sufficient spheres of influence, such as the National Laboratories, or national or international organizations including the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), or the United Nations itself, it may even be possible to change the direction that the world is headed if it is determined that the end point of any particular future path is undesirable.