Inmm Workshop On The Quantification Of The Likelihood Of Attack

This workshop was intended to address the age-old question of whether it is possible to quantify the likelihood of an attack on a nuclear facility to enable credible risk comparisons with safety. The INMM Nuclear Security and Physical Protection Technical Division has been working with the Joint Committee on Nuclear Risk Management (JCNRM) to develop guidance on risk-informing security, using safety risk information. It has become clear that there is a need for a quantification of security initiating events to enable some form of comparison between safety and security risk. This would enable more appropriate expenditure of resources to protect a facility. After significant discussion with the JCNRM, it appeared that such a quantification might be possible. The workshop brought experts from multiple disciplines together to assess whether it might be possible and to identify possible approaches for this quantification. Originally, it was intended to be held in-person at Penn State, but was postponed due to the pandemic. The Penn State Student Chapter made it possible to hold the workshop virtually. There was discussion on many aspects of the issue. This paper summarizes the discussion and identifies a path forward.