The Nexus Between Strategic Trade Controls And Safeguards: State Of Play And Current Challenges

Abstract: Practitioners working in the fields of international nuclear safeguards and export controls often conduct their research, development, or implementation activities in isolation from each other. However, the two domains are inextricably linked. Both nuclear safeguards and export controls have been largely shaped by the same external factors and they are pervaded by shared goals, i.e. strengthening international security and ensuring that nuclear materials, equipment, facilities and technologies are not used for illegitimate purposes and/or by unauthorised users. Furthermore, they (at least partially) seek relevant information from common sources – export declarations related to Annex II of the Model Additional Protocol for safeguards, the Nuclear Suppliers Group Trigger List for export controls, as well as the description of the nuclear fuel cycle-related activities listed in AP Annex I. Given the mutually reinforcing role of both mechanisms, this paper aims to offer a state-of-the-art account on ways in which export control and safeguards verification processes, activities, and data can support one another. Additionally, the authors will provide an insight into current research challenges, such as entity resolution and dataset cross-matching, associated with utilizing relevant datasets. While looking at these challenges from a research angle, the identified issues have a bearing on the work of State authorities (be it nuclear regulators, export licensing or customs) and the International Atomic Energy Agency’s role for effective safeguards implementation.