The Trilateral Initiative: Getting Ready

This paper summarizes the accomplishments of the Trilateral Initiative to date and identifies the future steps foreseen. Fissile material controls offer perhaps the most obvious means through which the international community can participate in verifying progress towards nuclear disarmament. Controls on excess military stocks of fissile materials can p r ovide assurance that those fissile materials are not returned to military use, and provide one means through which the international community can encourage nuclear arms reductions and steps to decrease the nuclear- weapon production capabilities of states possessing nuclear weapons. The Trilateral Initiative was launched in 1996 to investigate the technical, legal, and financial issues associated with IAEA verification of weapon-origin fissile material released from the military programs in Russia and the United States. Most of those fissile materials remain in classified form, or with classified characteristics. The high costs and long process times required for the disposition of those materials suggest that for the Trilateral Initiative to provide a significant impact, the amounts of fissile material submitted must be as large as possible and as soon as possible; hence, the IAEA must be able to verify fissile material with classified characteristics. Six years on, technical concepts and prototype equipment suitable for such a verification mission have been developed and demonstrated, the elements of a legal framework have been defined and drafted, preliminary cost estimates have been made and alternative financing arrangements have been identified. The Trilateral Initiative has come to the point where several challenges must now be met: the technologies and inspection procedures must be proven under realistic conditions so that the national certification and IAEA authentication concerns can be assured; several bilateral issues need to be resolved between the United States and the Russian Federation; and the legal framework and some remaining ve ri fication issues need to be settled.