Sixty Years On, Time for Reflection on IAEA Safeguards?

Over the sixty years of INMM’s existence, IAEA safeguards have continually evolved, starting with specific facility safeguards and developing into facility-based NPT safeguards. The challenge of the undeclared nuclear weapons program in Iraq led to recognition of the need to strengthen safeguards and to the adoption of the Model Additional Protocol. The result was ‘strengthened’ safeguards, which has evolved into so-called ‘integrated’ safeguards. Of major importance, the safeguards conclusions drawn by the IAEA expanded from ‘all declared nuclear material remaining in peaceful uses’ to include ‘no indication of undeclared nuclear material or activities’. There are NPT safeguards agreements with 174 States. This includes the so-called Small Quantity agreements for 100 States with few nuclear activities. Safeguards are also carried out under other agreements and mandates: the remaining facility-specific agreements under INFCIRC/66 with three States; the Voluntary Offer Agreements with the five NPT nuclear weapon States, and the special mandates from the UN Security Council, in particular in Iraq and Iran. Taking the experience gained from all these varied safeguards situations, IAEA safeguards in 2019 are robust, mature and tested. This presentation addresses whether it would be timely to review and bring up to date the policies and the documentation for the full spectrum of IAEA safeguards implementation. For NPT safeguards under INFCIRC/153 agreements, a new NPT safeguards standard could be adopted, codifying the evolution of safeguards implementation that has taken place in the past thirty years. That standard would include the Additional Protocol as a necessary component for all States, and the Modified Small Quantities Protocol for relevant States. Also to be addressed would be safeguards under INFCIRC/66 agreements, with a focus on the recent expanded agreement with India. And consideration could be given to rethinking the role and implementation of safeguards under Voluntary Offer agreements. While the IAEA would have the lead in such an enterprise, it is suggested that Member States could be important contributors.