Predicting how emerging nuclear energy countries will manage radioactive waste and implications for likely scenarios

As more countries begin to consider developing nuclear energy industries, there is still an unresolved global question on what to do with radioactive waste. Radioactive waste, a byproduct of nuclear energy, can pose serious health and proliferation risks if handled improperly. The question of how to manage radioactive waste becomes especially difficult when countries face limitations with respect to finances or technical expertise. Yet, the right for all countries to pursue peaceful nuclear activities is inherent in the nuclear nonproliferation treaty, and a linchpin to nearly global membership in the nuclear nonproliferation regime. Because there can be no requirement against countries pursuing nuclear energy (assuming they are in good standing with the IAEA), there must be a global consensus on how to help emerging nuclear energy countries access and develop cheap and affordable radioactive waste and spent fuel management processes. This paper will look at radioactive waste management processes in newer nuclear energy countries, with the intent of identifying factors that pushed them towards a specific process. This paper will then look at the countries likely to emerge in the nuclear energy field and identify possible determinants in their radioactive waste management plans (i.e. technical expertise, money, exporter preference, geological profile of terrain). In assessing and forecasting the ways these countries will seek to address the problem of radioactive waste, this paper intends to inform global radioactive waste management platforms on how to best help these countries achieve safe and reliable radioactive waste and spent fuel management plans. Finally, this research will seek to inform questions that are likely to arise among established nuclear energy countries over the development of new nuclear energy countries. For example, one major effort that has been undertaken is to push for a system of radioactive waste repositories; if the results of this paper suggest that a repository system could be a useful way to ensure emerging countries are able to safely manage radioactive waste, then this paper may provide further substantiation for such efforts.