WHAT DIFFERENTIATES KIM JONG-IL FROM GADDAFI : Problems of Nuclear Development Factor Analysis Methods and Proposal of Alternatives

The focus of this study is the motivation for North Korea’s nuclear development under Kim Jong-il as he came to rely on his program of nuclear warheads and missiles as integral in his consuming drive to unify the Korean peninsula. This study compares the North Korean program with that initiated by the Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi, pointing out similarities as well as critical differences. North Korea began its nuclear program in the late 1940s with the clear goal of using it as one means to occupy South Korea. The strategy then as now was that possession of the means to deliver a warhead to targets in the U.S., and to America’s East Asian allies, notably Japan, would be crucial in preventing US intervention on behalf of South Korea. This motivation and strategy remains unchanged seven decades after its inception. This study attempts to verify the basic rationale for North Korea’s nuclear development while stressing the importance of the country’s distinctive if not unique approach. Focusing on the comparison with Libya, this paper discusses the reasons behind North Korea’s nuclear program ranging from the need of the ruling Kim family to survive against domestic opposition to the North’s peculiar position surrounded by historically hostile powers. At the same time, we need to consider such factors as the collapse of Communist rule in the Soviet Union and East Bloc and failed efforts at reaching agreement on the North’s nuclear program. As the only nation to have tested a nuclear warhead in the 21st century, North Korea has its own unique set of motivations for behavior that threatens to bring about a second Korean War.