NUCLEAR TERRORISM: ASSESSING THE RISK

Over the course of the last decade, international terrorism has been repeatedly identified as the largest risk to US national security. This has corresponded to the number of terrorist organizations operating throughout the world. As these organizations grow, many have become sophisticated in their operations with international and even worldwide reach, expanding their resources and thus their risk to US national security. International terrorism now operates in a world of advanced and increasingly accessible technology. Of the many threats posed by terrorism, few invoke more fear than nuclear terrorism. Legally defined as the use of radioactive material with the intent to cause death or serious bodily injury or substantial damage to property or environment, this definition is inclusive to traditional nuclear bombs as well as Radiological Dispersal Devices (RDD) and Improvised Nuclear Devices (IND). Despite their rarity, the potential for loss of life in a nuclear terrorist attack would be catastrophic and therefore the risk cannot be ignored. Nuclear terrorism is a high impact, low probability threat. In order to assess the risk of such attacks on the US, models are often employed as a means to analyze complex variables. Models are aimed at increasing the reproducibility and repeatability of risk assessment analysis. With respect to assessing risk from terrorism, the nature of the risk is dynamic, as terrorists continually monitor successful countermeasures and adapt their targets, tactics, and modes of operation to surmount the countermeasures, as well as change goals and capabilities. A robust model can assess risk with greater confidence and can inform policy maker strategy. The objective of this paper is to provide the decision makers with a risk model framework that can accurately assess risk of the use of nuclear weapons by regional terrorist organizations. Specifically, this framework will assess the risk of one or several of these groups using such weapons against the United States. In the context of the model, nuclear weapons will encompass Radiological Dispersal Devices and Improvised Nuclear Devices. This model aims to properly identify and weight timely, relevant, and complex variables as well assess their applicability to the problem.