An Improved Model for Adversary Decision-making through Modeling and Simulation

In prior work, we have proposed a context for using Physical Security Modeling and Simulation (PSMS) in risk- informed decision making [1]. Within this work we presented three assumptions that form the basis for how PSMS can adequately address the adaptive/reasoning adversary. In the second assumption we indicated that a triplet weighting of adversary preferences between detection, delay, and neutralization could be used in a multi- attribute decision process to represent adversary decision-making during both the planning and conduct of an attack on a facility. During recent discussions, we have been asked to further substantiate this assumption and elaborate on the adversary decision process. This paper begins by looking back at the historical Critical Detection Point (CDP) approach for modeling human behavior in physical security. This review is followed by the development of a classification system for PSMS behavior models including the triplet weighting model mentioned in the prior paper. During this effort we came across the possibility of a new behavior model which builds upon concepts from the CDP and triplet weighting models. We suggest that this new behavior model is more technically defensible, especially when considering the current multi-layered security designs in common use.