Modeling Nuclear Proliferation – Characterization based on the history

There have been various efforts in the research community to understand the determinants of nuclear proliferation and develop quantitative tools to predict nuclear proliferation events. Such quantitative tools could prove to be useful to provide early warning by processing very extensive nature of information involved in a systematic way. Modeling works have been exercised in these efforts. However use of predictive models has had mixed success with significant probabilities of producing false alarms. At the same time, little guidance has been available to the research community as to how the process of modeling nuclear proliferation should be guided. Several important questions in modeling nuclear proliferation have not been addressed before. For example, how should the scenarios of nuclear proliferation be linked with the selection of model variables? How important are the characteristics or various attributes of nuclear technological facilities and infrastructure of a country? How could the various cultural, political, and bureaucratic aspects of decision making surrounding nuclear weapons development be taken into account? How could the dynamics aspects of decision making surrounding nuclear weapons development be modeled? Based on comprehensive review of the literature, this paper aims at critically analyzing the process of variable selection in modeling nuclear proliferation behaviors of a country. Scenarios of nuclear proliferation by a state actor were characterized, summarized, and linked with selection of variables within the modeling framework. New variables that are relevant and important in describing a nation’s nuclear proliferation behaviors were identified. Using the new variables, capability of a quantitative model for modeling state’s nuclear proliferation behavior is examined.