FIXED PLANT PROLIFERATION ANALYSIS OF IRAN’S NATANZ PLANT

In nonproliferation studies, it is important to accurately determine the capabilities of a gas centrifuge enrichment plant (GCEP) that may be used for proliferating nuclear material. Typically in the literature, ideal cascade analyses or separative work calculations are used. These analyses do not take into account the inefficiencies of real cascade separation, especially when operating a cascade off of its ideal design point, which may occur in proliferation attempts. In this study, we perform a fixed plant proliferation analysis of Iran’s GCEP at Natanz operating in a four step batch recycle mode, as reported by A. Q. Khan. First, a centrifuge performance map is determined by treating the centrifuge as a cascade and performing a productivity analysis assuming a P1 centrifuge with separative power of 0.9 SWU/yr and a separation factor of 1.343. Next, an ideal cascade analysis is used to determine the cascade design for normal operation to produce low enriched uranium for power reactor fuel. Finally, a productivity analysis is performed on the fixed design cascade for two cases: one neglecting pre-existing inventory, and one accounting for inventory. Based on information available from the IAEA at the end of November 2011, we conclude from this study that the fastest time a significant quantity of highly enriched weapons grade uranium can be obtained using a batch recycle process at the Natanz plant is 7.20 months. As Iran adds centrifuges to their cascades and stockpiles more LEU, this time will decrease.