The Impact of the Crisis in and around Ukraine on Nuclear Security Threats and Regimes in the Black Sea Region

Since the 1990s the Black Sea region has been the location for most identified cases of illicit trafficking of nuclear materials in general, and fissile materials in particular. The nuclear security situation in the region was complicated by the existence of areas with unstable governance and frozen conflicts—Transnistria, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The United States, Norway, Sweden and the UK, as well as the EU and the IAEA, recognized this threat, and for many years provided assistance to a number of countries around the Black Sea, helping to improve their nuclear security regimes. The events that began to unfold in 2014 created two more areas with unstable governance in the region and changed the security environment and cooperation frameworks in the region in ways that exacerbate the threat of nuclear smuggling in the whole region, far beyond the territory of Ukraine. This paper presents the study funded by the Carnegie Corporation of New York that assesses whether and how the crisis has changed the illicit trafficking risks, describes the impact onexisting regional nuclear security regimes and cooperative projects that are intended to reduce the risk of illicit trafficking, and suggests necessary steps to minimize the new risks. This study is conducted by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute in cooperation with the Odessa Center for Non-Proliferation in Ukraine; the Horia Hulubei National Institute of R&D in Physics and Nuclear Engineering (IFIN) in Romania; and the National Agency for Regulation of Nuclear and Radiological Activities in Moldova. The study is based on analysis of open sources, interviews with most nuclear security stakeholder organizations in the Black Sea region, and outcomes of the regional nuclear security conference held at IFIN in Romania in April 2018.