THE NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL AND NONPROLIFERATION REGIMES: A MODEL FOR MANAGING GLOBAL CATASTROPHIC RIS

In this paper, the distinction between global catastrophic risks, existential risks and national security risks is described and discussed. The system of international agreements designed to prevent the use of nuclear weapons and to control the spread of nuclear weapons, materials and technologies (collectively referred to as the nuclear arms control and nonproliferation regimes) is posited as humanity’s first attempt to counter a global catastrophic risk. Extrapolating general principles of state response and regime development from the international nuclear arms control and nonproliferation regimes, a model of state response to serious risk is constructed. Insights from the model are used to prioritize policy choices for improving the regimes’ ability to prevent the spread and use of nuclear weapons and weapons-usable material. The model is then used to predict state responses to a variety of other global catastrophic and existential risks