Seeing past the uncertainties of nuclear energy in South Korea

The 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident sparked regional public concern over nuclear power, and in South Korea gave rise to a debate over the country’s reliance on nuclear energy in the 2017 presidential elections. The new president-elect, Moon Jae-in, campaigned on a policy of substantially decreasing nuclear energy’s contribution to total national electricity generation, with the complete phase-out of nuclear reactors as a long-term objective. Despite backing somewhat off this plan since the election, the Moon government has successfully managed to freeze any new nuclear reactor construction plans in South Korea and has slowed down progress on reactors currently under construction. However, based on the characteristics of South Korea’s nuclear reactor fleet and industry, it is unclear how much more the Moon government can accomplish in lowering nuclear energy contribution without taking a more drastic action such as early decommissioning. This paper argues that commercial nuclear power reactors are likely to significantly contribute to the country’s electricity generation for the foreseeable future on account of the fundamentals of the industry, including the relative youth of the reactor fleet, the costs of decommissioning reactors early, the lack of alternatives for electricity generation, and the absence of viable nuclear waste storage options. This paper also reflects on what this projected contribution means for Moon’s stated electricity goals for the country, which are unlikely to be met in the near-term.