IS NUCLEAR FORENSICS AN EFFECTIVE DETERRENT AGAINST NUCLEAR SMUGGLING AND TERRORISM?

Since the production of nuclear technology is arduous in the absence of state-based resources, nuclear forensics can potentially be employed to identify the provenance of sample materials. Consequently, nuclear forensics provides the basis of a state-based deterrence strategy, which has existed since the Cold War, where states are not only responsible for their own weapons, but also can be accountable if nuclear material or technology is traced back to them. In addition to this traditional notion of state-based deterrence, current proponents of nuclear forensics have strongly advocated this expertise and technology as an effective deterrent against nuclear smuggling or terrorism in the post-9/11 era. This is an extension beyond traditional deterrence theory, and raises the question that although capable of attributing materials to a state facility, will nuclear forensics deter non-state actors? Various deterrence strategies are examined in conjunction with the strategic application of nuclear forensics towards non-state threats.