Simulation Modeling of Mobile Detection Systems

Vehicles, boats or personnel transporting radioactive materials could be detected by mounting radiation detectors on patrolling vehicles, vessels or personnel on foot. In this report, we describe the Maritime Simulation Model 2.0 (MSM) developed to evaluate the efficacy of a given configuration of detectors and general concept of operations (CONOPS) attempting to detect a moving radioactive source. We characterize performance in terms of the probability that a detector system will encounter a source and the probability that the source will be detected given the encounter. The MSM system includes the capability to read GIS shape files defining the maritime environment and surrounding land-based assets. Operational parameters include traffic volume, radiation detection hardware, alarming algorithm and patrol CONOPS. In the model, the source enters the mouth of a bay attempts to reach the opposite side. Patrols attempt to screen all incoming conveyances in accordance with the specified CONOPS. For each setting of input parameters, thousands of simulation runs are made to estimate the average performance of the system.