Probabilistic Effectiveness Methodology Use in Preventive Radiological/Nuclear Detection

The Probabilistic Effectiveness Methodology (PEM) is a simulation that replicates threat motivation, capabilities, and intent, threat transportation pathways (air, land, and sea), the performance of detector architectures, and individual detector performance associated with preventive radiological and nuclear detection. PEM is being developed to support the Domestic Nuclear Detection Office (DNDO) as it analyzes, from a Red/Adversary perspective, gaps, seams and vulnerabilities of the global nuclear detection architecture. Another use is identifying how changes in threat capability impact the gaps, seams, and vulnerabilities. Possible follow-on uses include acquisition support, mission management, transformational research, and operations. This paper will provide an overview of PEM and a review of some notional output examples.