CONDUCTING ACQUISITION PATH ANALYSIS FOR DEVELOPING A STATE - LEVEL SAFEGUARDS APPROACH

The objective of acquisition path analysis is to identify and assess all plausible routes by which a State could, from a technical point of view, acquire nuclear material for the development of a nuclear weapon or other nuclear explosive device . Each acquisition path consi sts of a series of acquisition path steps that could include the diversion of nuclear material from declared nuclear facilities in the State , misuse of declared facilities to process and produce undeclared nuclear material, and the possible existence in th e State of undeclared nuclear material, facilities and activities. Acquisition path analysis includes the consideration of a State’s nuclear fuel cycle related capabilities and experience, as well as additional capabilities and expertise that would be requ ired by the State ; it is therefore a key aspect in the evaluation of all safeguards relevant information about a State. T he implementation of safeguards by the International Atomic Energy Agency (‘ IAEA ’) will be based on a customized State - level safeguards approach developed for each State . In addition to its use for State evaluation, acquisition path analysis also provides the basis for the development of an effective State - level approach for States with comprehensive safeguards agreements in fo rce . In order to ensure comprehensive and consistent analysis for the development of State - level approaches , additional internal guidance on acquisition path analysis has been prepare d by the IAEA . This paper gives an overview of the acquisition path analy sis process, includ ing how to identify and assess paths , and how the results of the analysis can be used in the develop ment of a State - level safeguards approach.