Protection against Sabotage of Nuclear Facilities: Using Morphological Analysis in Revising the Design Basis Threat

The Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, SKI is the regulatory authority for nuclear activities in Sweden and therefore responsible for the development of a Design Basis Threat1 (DBT) as a basis for regulations on Physical Protection of Nuclear Material and Nuclear Facilities. SKI has decided to revise its regulations concerning Physical Protection of Nuclear Facilities. The starting point for this task was to review the existing DBT. To accomplish this, SKI chose to use the method of morphological analysis (MA) as a tool to structure and analyse the problem, in order to arrive at a realistic DBT. The work was done with the help of the Swedish National Defence Research Agency (FOI). FOI has developed a computer-aided laboratory in which alternative scenarios can be formulated, developed, tested and evaluated. This paper will describe how MA was used in developing scenarios and how the results of the work were used to revise the DBT.