The Road to 2015: Prospects for the Article VI Debate

As we look toward the 2015 Review Conference (RevCon) of the Parties to the Treaty on the Nonprolife ration of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) , Article VI issues will likely once again be central, with predictable attention to US nuclear policy in the Obama administ ration, including the implementation of the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), implementation of New START and the status of the proposed follow - on, the status of ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), the prospects for opening negotiati ons on a fissile material cutoff treaty (FMCT) and other key issues. The US case for Article VI compliance is strong and the administration’s declaratory policies and its commitment to diplomacy will continue to be welcomed, albeit with somewhat diminished enthusiasm given the impact of, and expectations created by, the landmark Prague speech in 2009. The NPR was a key element in the successful outcome of the 2010 RevCon and provides a foundation for further progress toward disarmament. However, weapon fund ing and limited nuclear infrastructure modernization will likely be criticized, as will the fact that changes in US declaratory policy did not go far enough toward either a sole purpose or a no - first use doctrine. In this context, details of implementatio n of the NPR will need to be developed as implementation will, in this NPT review cycle, focus on short - term actions that are related to stockpile stewardship, life - extension programs (LEPs), infrastructure modernization and delivery system replacements. T hese actions are critical but will likely raise long - standing criticisms. Finally, the growing interest in delegitimizing nuclear weapons through the use of international humanitarian law is being raised in the Article VI context. NPT nonnuclear - weapon sta tes (NNWS) are increasingly frustrated with the pace of nuclear disarmament and critical of the nuclear - weapon states. As a consequence, there will be a continuing need to engage on these issues, in part to manage expectations, to answer Article VI critici sm. In this context, this paper will explore and assess the likely issues in the lead up to 2015 RevCon as the United States develops its Article VI case.