Year
2003
Abstract
This paper consists of the application of a Mathematical Model developed and presented by the Nuclear Regulatory Authority to a given fuel cycle of a generic country. This practical example is composed by the steps associated to the fuel cycle considered and different Integrated Safeguards Systems (ISS) are weighed. As a result, the most appropriate ISS is obtained. The Safeguards Control Systems applied vary from the one that only includes Traditional Safeguards Measures to the ones that integrate both Traditional Safeguards Measures to the ones stated at the Model Additional Protocol with growing strengthened measures from system to system. As may be clearly understood the integration of more and more strengthened measures to each system depends on the detection probability adopted to safeguard the fuel cycle. Under this assumption, the set of systems considered moves from the Traditional Safeguards System to a more strengthen system. The limitation at finding the upper limit depends on costs, which are also associated to the country resource availability and political decisions. In the paper, a value function relating the costs, the detection probability, the strategic value, the conversion time and the mass quantity associated is assumed. This function is applied to each considered system. From the cost analysis associated to the application of the different systems to the fuel cycle, an optimum Integrated Safeguards System (ISS) arouses. This optimum ISS lets us decide at which steps the safeguards measures should be strengthened to reach an appropriate result to meet safeguards goals. Some conclusions are overdrawn as a result of the above mentioned analysis but above all the development of this Mathematical Model attempts at finding a mathematical tool to make safeguards more efficient and effective.