Adjusting Safeguards Implementation when the IAEA is Unable to Reaffirm a Previously Drawn Safeguards Conclusion

This paper explores the question of how the State-level safeguards approach for a State with a comprehensive safeguards agreement and an additional protocol in force should be modified in the event the IAEA Secretariat finds it no longer can reaffirm the so-called broader conclusion that all nuclear material required to be safeguarded under the agreement remains in peaceful activities. It argues that the concepts for effective safeguards implementation at the State level still should apply: An updated acquisition-path analysis should be performed, taking full account of the circumstances and findings that prevented reaffirmation, in order to identify what specific, objectives-based changes in safeguards activities may be needed to restore effective coverage of all plausible acquisition paths for the state. Examples are provided to illustrate these ideas.