Safeguards Information from Open Sources

The recent explosion of open-source information and the availability of advanced tools for collecting, mining, and analyzing such information have enhanced the role of open-source analysis in safeguards and nonproliferation studies. This paper discusses the role of open-source information in analyzing potential proliferation pathways, including diversion of declared nuclear material and the potential detection of undeclared nuclear activities. We see an evolution of integrating such analysis into on-site inspections and assistance in prioritizing aspects of the state evaluation process. Open-source analysis is unlikely by itself to provide a definitive detection of clandestine activity. However, it may contribute to identifying locations, institutions, people, and activities that should be targeted for further investigation and may provide important additional details that add perspective on the relevant technical, industrial, and military capabilities, as well as R&D activities, of a particular entity or group. We discuss why open- source analysis has become, and continues to be, a valuable nonproliferation asset, as well as some of the limitations and needs for additional capabilities.