Intent, Capability, and Opportunity: A Holistic Approach to Addressing Proliferation as a Risk Management Issue

Proliferation risk assessment models are designed to evaluate only a portion of the overall risk, focusing exclusively on either technological or social factors to determine the extent of a threat. Many of these models are intended to predict proliferation potential rather than assess the system as a whole, ignoring the ability to enhance mitigating factors and manage the threat in addition to establishing its presence. Information gathered through these analyses is necessary but incomplete. By incorporating political, social, economic, and technical capabilities with human factors such as intent into a single, multi-faceted risk-management model, proliferation risk can be evaluated more effectively. Such information can provide a framework for ideas to improve and expand the existing regime and identify gaps in the system, allowing for a more complete approach to risk management, mitigation, and resource allocation. The research conducted here seeks to combine all three elements (intent, capability, and opportunity) in a comprehensive evaluation that incorporates an assessment of state-level variables, possible proliferation pathways, and technical capability. Each portion of the analysis is carried out independently, then combined to illustrate the full scope of a state’s nuclear infrastructure while showing areas of weakness in the institutional framework.