Year
2002
Abstract
The success of a nonproliferation regime depends, among other things, on the security of nuclear complexes worldwide. Analysis of trends in nuclear diversions provides insight into the overall health of a country’s nuclear security. Since the September 11th attacks, the importance of monitoring and understanding the potential for diversion of nuclear weapons and weapons materials has been more clearly recognized. At Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), we have developed a system with which to track nuclear diversions worldwide. Analysis of the information in the database has provided key insights into nuclear diversion trends and has focused future research efforts. This paper provides the results of a high-level analysis of the database information, focusing on how this information can be used to aid in global nonproliferation. The observed trends provide insight into the types of materials stolen; the level of involvement of countries, institutes and specific groups; and how diversions have changed over time.