The impact of the Iran Deal on Nonproliferation and Arms Control

On July 14, 2015, President Barack Obama announced what he described as a historic deal to resolve the ongoing crisis over Iran’s nuclear program. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was designed to reduce proliferation risks in Iran in return for sanctions relief. The JCPOA is a lengthy and complex agreement that has generated intense debate in the United States, including concerns about the effectiveness of its monitoring and verification provisions. The establishment of a Joint Commission of all parties and a “procurement channel” to monitor Iran imports have been raised in the emerging debate, as has the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA’s) manner of addressing so-called possible military dimensions (PMDs) and verifying compliance with the terms of the agreement. Implementation will be central to resolving these and related issues in the debate, but will the JCPOA’s provisions have an impact on future nonproliferation and arms control? Will it set precedents that affect the implementation of safeguards? If so, in what manner? How will it affect regional nonproliferation? Will the Joint Commission or the procurement channel concepts be utilized in other agreements? How will the agreement be judged in terms of its dealing with latency? This paper explores the precedents set by the JCPOA, along with other possible impacts, on the range of future regional and global nonproliferation and arms control initiatives.