Pathway Analysis and the State-Level Concept

The International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA’s) Physical Model and the concept of proliferation pathway analysis together provide a structured means for developing and implementing State-level safeguards approaches. In a limited manner pathway analysis is already utilized by the Agency in its information analysis and State evaluation process. In implementing the IAEA’s State-level concept, the use of acquisition pathway analysis could be further refined to enable more comprehensive State-level assessments and enhance its usefulness in information driven safeguards. Pathways can be ranked in terms of their attractiveness using State-specific factors and used to determine technical objectives for safeguards. The ability to associate indicators with specific pathways in a dynamic fashion can enhance information analysis, helping to deal with problems of incomplete information and providing suggestions for further investigation and anomaly resolution. The potential for pathway analysis to support the implementation of the Agency’s State-level concept is evaluated in this paper along with implementation issues.