Year
2003
Abstract
During its Strengthened Safeguards program, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) developed several measures for improving its effectiveness, particularly in the area of detecting undeclared facilities and activities. Some of these measures were applicable under current INFCIRC/153 agreements (Part 1 measures), others were deemed to require additional authorities (Part 2 measures). This led to the negotiation and ultimate adoption of the Model Additional Protocol, INFCIRC/540. Before the Agency’s goal of universal adherence to the Protocol is achieved, Part 1 measures of strengthened safeguards can be applied in all States with full scope safeguards agreements. Much can be achieved under INFCIRC/153 authorities. Although the Part 2 measures may not be utilized, measures such as environmental sampling, information analysis and satellite imagery can be applied. These measures will provide important detection capabilities extending beyond declared sites and will strengthen the safeguards system. In the important area of detecting undeclared activities apart from the declared nuclear fuel cycle, the effectiveness of safeguards for States without an Additional Protocol may not differ substantially from States with a Protocol in place. In addition, strengthened INFCIRC/153 may actually be more effective in detecting proliferation programs involving declared material or facilities than integrated safeguards due to the tradeoffs envisioned between 153 and 540 measures. Such tradeoffs should be examined carefully as we seek universal adherence to the Protocol.