Modeling and Forecasting of Nuclear Materials Inventories for Stockpile Stewardship

The management of nuclear materials inventories in an era of stockpile reductions, aging facilities, and lifetime extensions for remaining weapon systems requires advanced forecasting and analysis tools. Existing inventory and forecasting models do not provide the fidelity, integration, and functionality needed to support enterprise planning and scheduling decisions. Sandia National Laboratories, in partnership with other NNSA/DP laboratories and sites, is developing an Integrated Inventory Information Management System (IIIMS) for the Defense Programs Material Readiness Campaign. The selection and evaluation of commercial, off-the-shelf technology for modeling and simulation is one element of the IIIMS project. We have demonstrated the use of Extend™ modeling software to define an inventory management problem and build a supply/demand forecasting model that incorporates inventory information, manufacturing and ship schedules, and material processing options. The model has been useful for requirements gathering with potential end users and for understanding the relationships among various material management systems. The current model focuses on a single site and single material stream, and multiple supplies and demands. The development process and options for further expansion and integration into a larger enterprise will be discussed.