A Quantitative Evaluation Of States’ Nuclear Nonproliferation Credibility

The year 2012 is significant for South Korea which will be hosting the second Nuclear Security Summit in Seoul; considering the status as the world’s fifth-largest country in terms of nuclear power generation, South Korea is often criticized, for its inadequate contribution to the international community in promoting nonproliferation norms worldwide. Thus, for South Korea, hosting the Nuclear Security Summit in 2012 will be a major step that will help the country assume a leading role in the international nonproliferation arena. This kind of “public” image, which is termed “nuclear nonproliferation credibility” (NNC), is very important for a country to effectively conduct nuclear activities, whether they are for the industrial or research purposes, as it establishes internationally recognized limits for them. Policymakers, therefore, should consider NNC while formulating policies for their country’s nuclear program. Unfortunately, assessing a country’s NNC is not an easy task, for it considerably depends on other countries’ subjective perceptions. This paper first attempts to quantify such perceptions, making them measurable. The paper then applies this quantification technique developed to South Korea, examining its significance from the policy-development perspective.