“Reflections on Challenges to the Nonproliferation Regime”

Reflecting on the state of nonproliferation and arms control in the second post cold war decade one reaches a mixed conclusion. On the one hand, any review of developments after the fall of the Berlin Wall shows a remarkable run of positive events including indefinite extension of the NPT, conclusion of a CTBT, bilateral and unilateral arms control agreements and initiatives. However, since the mid 1990s the record in arms control and nonproliferation has taken a downturn. The contrast between the earlier and later post cold war years reflects changes in the international environment and in national perceptions of security and threat. International relations has become more complex , more dangerous and less predictable after the cold war than during it. Decentralization replaced bipolarity, political relationships became more diffuse, the nature and source of threat more diverse. Older solutions to older problems have been increasingly questioned in terms of their relevance to new threats. Traditionally, deterrence and defense have worked to forestall or defeat threats to national security while arms control and nonproliferation regimes worked to reduce or remove threats in first place. Maintaining and strengthening effective arms control and nonproliferation that meets this criterion is and will remain a challenge as we move forward and will require a sustained longterm vision of order and stability.