A Simple Evaluation Model on the Effectiveness of Integrated Safeguards Implementation

Many countries concluding comprehensive safeguards agreements (INFCIRC/153 type) with the International Atomic Energy Agency are currently going to agree to a new additional protocol, INFCIRC/540. The protocol will make them provide more information to the IAEA. The expanded framework is expected to establish a stronger and more efficient IAEA safeguards system, which we call integrated safeguards. However, there seems to be no logical fundamentals that enable the inspectorate to derive a final evaluation from the information collected through the integrated safeguards implementation. In this paper, the author tries to make the fundamentals clear and proposes a simple practical model to evaluate the effectiveness of integrated safeguards implementation. In addition, this model is shown to be useful for planning to improve the efficiency.