Verifying the Non-deployment of Nuclear Delivery Systems: Analyses of Possible Implementation Measures

This paper analyzes possible implementation measures of a strategy to verify that mobile missile systems capable of delivering nuclear weapons are restricted to agreed limited deployment zones. If the missiles are effectively tagged, only a sub-set of the missile population has to be inspected to conclude with high confidence that the declared missiles remain within the agreed limited deployment zones. For verifying the locations of the select sub-set of the missile population, it is proposed that the inspected party use a camera system provided by the inspecting party to take an image of the tag. The camera system also records the time and coordinates of the image’s location. This approach avoids creating security vulnerabilities. The paper discusses technical approaches to the tagging and identification of select missile systems, such that an inspecting party would have greater confidence in the inspected party’s compliance with the limited deployment zone restrictions. The paper presents analyses to define the acceptable spatial and other parameters integral to the inspection regime.