Updating the Physical Model for Open Source Analysis

The Physical Model is used by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Department of Safeguards as a representation of the nuclear fuel cycle. The Physical Model consists of a separate volume for each major step of the nuclear fuel cycle, and it serves as a technical reference for evaluating states’ nuclear fuel cycle activities, a model for mapping these activities, and an aid in connecting indicators with the existence or development of nuclear activities. The Physical Model is used widely in the Department of Safeguards by individual inspectors and analysts and collectively by State Evaluation Groups to prepare for field activities and in headquarters analysis. Open source analysts participating in state evaluation activities make use of Physical Model indicators to collect and review safeguards-relevant open source information, among other activities. The Physical Model is “anticipated to be a living and work-in-progress document subject to periodic review and update”. One of the anticipated reasons for updating the Physical Model is “experience gained through its application practice and new requirements for implementing strengthened safeguards”. The original volumes of the Physical Model were published prior to more robust use of open source information in the state evaluation process, as well as prior to the full implementation of the State-Level Concept. The IAEA is currently working to update the Physical Model, presumably from a technical perspective. This paper explores how the Physical Model might be improved to better support the needs of analysts, in particular open source analysts, in light of evolution in safeguards implementation since the original drafting of the Physical Model.