Ubiquitous Sensing: What Role in Verifying Nonproliferation, Arms Control and Disarmament?

Future arms control verification focused on ever lower numbers of arms will require greater transparency. Technological revolution is producing a world in which transparency is increasing—irrespective of any negotiations or agreements. Information technology developments, including the global surge in commercial surveillance technologies, smart phones and social media, are creating a new openness. One feature of this new landscape, ubiquitous sensing, is an unreachable objective at the literal level. At the practical level, however, it is becoming a reality with increasingly available satellite imagery and the global diffusion of mobile platforms with cameras, accelerometers, magnetometers and other sensors. The information provided by this revolution, particularly the spread of sensors on smart phones, tablets and laptops, whose readings can be disseminated through social media, can, in principle, make it more likely that a clandestine weapons of mass destruction (WMD) facility or prohibited nuclear procurement can be uncovered, or that mobile missiles or transshipments of nuclear materials can be better monitored. To the extent ubiquitous sensing can enhance transparency, it can be a source of confidence that a state is behaving in a certain fashion, and that its activities are in compliance with agreements, or conform to certain standards and norms. Can ubiquitous sensing be utilized as a transparency measure? Can it play a significant role in the verification of nonproliferation, arms control and disarmament? Can it reduce the costs, difficulties, and intrusiveness of monitoring compliance? Can it break down barriers and obstacles or be the source of new conflicts? A debate is only beginning on these issues. Both the political and technological limits on ubiquitous sensing will have to be fully understood. “Spoofing” this capability, or misusing it to disrupt diplomacy or to foster disinformation, are real concerns. The prospect of compromising proliferation-sensitive and proprietary information, as well as personal privacy, are also problems. Any future efforts to utilize ubiquitous sensing in verification will have to be cognizant of these and other concerns and address the technical, legal and ethical issues they raise. If not, they could result in mistrust even among the very constituencies the technologies are designed to assist. This paper will identify and assess the debate, the issues and the prospects for a possible role of ubiquitous sensing in the verification of nonproliferation, arms control and disarmament.