Year
2011
Abstract
Due to the increasing size and complexity of Gas Centrifuge Enrichment Plants (GCEPs), there is a desire to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections. Several safeguards technologies have been considered to help verify the declared operations of GCEPs. These safeguards measures rely heavily on the ability of the safeguards technology to detect diversion. In evaluating these measures, one needs to determine if there are scenarios that could potentially mask the detection of diversion of material from these technologies. In these scenarios, how long would it take to divert significant quantities of material? Computational modeling can provide insight into the relative time scales necessary to divert significant quantities of material in scenarios to evaluate the detectability by safeguards technologies. In this research, we determine the relative time scales that would be needed to divert significant quantities of material from various size GCEPs for various scenarios. Through a literature study, we identify key physical enrichment plant components and model them using Simulink and SimScape. Applying cascade theory, we identify and simulate a range of enrichment plants from 100 MTSWU/yr to 1,000 MTSWU/yr. These plants are modeled generically, as the purpose of this research is not to target specifically developed plants, but to quantify the magnitude of time scales needed for detection of diversion or misuse. Specifically, we study and quantify the effect of plant size on diversion potential.