Threat convergence: Achieving integrated security Baltimore, Maryland 13 July 2010

Experts and government officials agree that the top three national and human security threats of our time are nuclear proliferation, terrorism, and fragile environments (including pockets of weakness in strong states). However, little attention has been paid to the convergence of these increasingly interrelated threats. Considerable attention is dedicated to highlighting how ‘ungoverned spaces’ present a global security threat, but ignoring the specific regional dynamics that allow these areas to remain outside of local government control or as ‘frozen’ conflicts presents a dangerous potential for threat convergence to occur. For example, in East Africa and the Horn—notably in Somalia, and areas of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania--porous borders, weak governance, lawlessness and corruption in these environments and the activities of extremist groups are facilitating conditions that should raise concern about illicit trafficking in nuclear or radiological materials. Similarly, while the August 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia might keep some of the well-known smuggling in the breakaway republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia at bay for the time being, the war’s long term destabilizing effects and the subsequent loss of Georgian control over South Ossetia could prove disastrous for international nonproliferation efforts in the region. Preventing a catastrophic nuclear scenario requires a new policy perspective that merges the three threats of nuclear proliferation, global terrorism and fragile environments, and views these threats as interconnected components of a distinct “fourth threat.” Existing initiatives to deal with vulnerabilities are rarely coordinated with weapons of mass destruction (WMD) proliferation and terrorism prevention efforts, either at the strategic or operational levels, in the US government or other contexts. This paper provides an overview of vulnerabilities in four regions of proliferation and illicit trafficking concern: the Black Sea, South Caucasus, East Africa and the Horn, and the Tri- Border Area of South America, and offers recommendations for ways to mitigate the potential for threat convergence to occur.1 Vulnerabilities that will be covered include: governance and law enforcement capacities; border insecurity; organized crime; corruption; illicit trafficking; civil conflict; and the presence or operations of terrorist groups or their affiliates.