Structuring the Nuclear Nonproliferation Transparency Problem

How states demonstrate commitment to nuclear nonproliferation usually involves multiple approaches: instituting domestic controls and regulations, acceding to international agreements, and accepting international safeguards on nuclear materials and activities. Yet another mechanism to provide nonproliferation assurances is through “transparency,” which can be an important complement to compliance-based approaches. Despite its appeal, there are many difficulties in realizing a successful implementation of transparency: it is fraught with complexity. Indeed, nonproliferation transparency is fundamentally an example of a “wicked problem” as originally described in a 1973 paper by Rittel and Webber.[1] While various transparency systems have been tried over many years, their widespread adoption has been hampered by the complexity of the problem itself. This paper recasts the transparency problem in terms of more manageable component problems. We reduce the problem complexity by recommending an eight-element structure for addressing transparency. As a first sub-problem, the audience for the transparency effort needs to be clearly identified and its concerns understood. Second, the scope for transparency must be bounded clearly, especially if nuclear nonproliferation is not the only subject of concern. Third, there must be a workable process for identifying content—the information to be provided transparently—that actually matters to the intended audience. Fourth, it is important to provide content both so that the audience can believe the information it receives, and so that the provider can be confident in releasing that information. Fifth, various linkages—to other organizations, to other topics, to those outside an information sharing arrangement—impose additional requirements and constraints on transparency. Sixth, a process or set of guidelines for vetting content are critical to mitigate security risks. Seventh, metrics to gauge the relative benefit from transparency are essential to justify effort and ensure sustainability. Eighth and finally, there are operational and infrastructure issues to be considered, such as access controls, changes in the parties to transparency, maintenance, follow-up mechanisms for resolving issues, and the like. Each of these eight elements can be considered individually at first, enabling more focused attention, before being brought together in developing an integrated transparency solution.