A Strategy for Verifying Non-deployment of Nuclear Delivery Systems

This paper presents a strategy for verifying the non-deployment of certain types of nuclear delivery systems. One option for restraint is restricting the operational deployment locations of missile forces. Verifying that this restraint measure is being implemented requires a balance of opacity and transparency in implementation. Full transparency in missile deployment actually reduces deterrence stability because each side receives potential targeting information that might be exploited. This paper outlines a statistically-based approach to verification that requires only limited transparency in missile deployment. If the missiles are effectively tagged and inspected, the analysis demonstrates that only a sub-set of the missile population has to be polled to conclude with high confidence that the declared missiles remain in the agreed zones. The appropriate use of opacity preserves deterrence stability.