Reimagining The Broader Conclusion

Safeguards conclusions are the ultimate product of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) verification process and ensuring their rigor and credibility is of paramount importance. As safeguards evolve to embrace the State-level Concept and make better use of all safeguards-relevant information, the process for reaching these conclusions has grown more complex. In the case of the Broader Conclusion, some notable issues include: (1) interpreting diverse information to assess the absence of undeclared activities, (2) evaluating the effectiveness of State-level safeguards approaches and communicating information this to Member States, and (3) responding to changing verification circumstances in a State, such as interrupted access to key locations. Some of these challenges have recently grown more acute due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Considering these issues, this paper reviews the history and basis of the IAEA’s practice for reaching the Broader Conclusion and identifies potential opportunities to strengthen this process. It addresses topics including (1) safeguards planning and evaluation, (2) the review and approval of safeguards findings and conclusions, and (3) communication to Member States. The paper discusses specific measures to enhance the rigor of the Broader Conclusion such as enhanced use of performance targets and structured analytic techniques, reframing the language of the conclusion in the Safeguards Implementation Report (SIR), and providing more supporting information on safeguards effectiveness.