PLUTONIUM AND SPENT FUEL MANAGEMENT OPTION IN JAPAN: IMPLICATION OF ROKKASHO OPERATION

In order to clarify the needs and timing of away from reactor (AFR) spent fuel storage in Japan, we estimate future generation of spent fuel and storage capacity at reactor sites as well as at reprocessing plant. We found that there will be sufficient spent fuel storage capacity up to mid 2020's. Without reprocessing, there will be a need for maximum of 30,000 t of AFR spent fuel storage capacity by 2050. Given political difficulties of spent fuel storage, we also estimate when Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) and Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) sites will run out of storage capacity without reprocessing. At PWR sites, storage pool will be filled up by 2014, and BWR sites will be filled up by 2019. If the Rokkasho plant starts operation as planned, Japan’s plutonium stockpile will likely to grow to more than 70t by 2020 from the current 43t in 2005. Deferring operation of the Rokkasho plant with an appropriate spent fuel storage plan, at least until the plutonium stockpile is worked down to the minimum required level, would be the best. We conclude that such strategy is feasible if spent fuel management and the mixed oxide fuel (MOX) program are better coordinated by the utilities. This would reduce pressure on utilities and minimize proliferation concern with Japan's plutonium programs.