Year
2002
Abstract
This paper consists of the development of a Mathematical Model applied to a generic nuclear fuel cycle (critical path). This theoretical cycle, composed by a fixed number of steps, is supposed to be controlled with different safeguards systems. As a result, tendencies are obtained reflecting the Diversion Opportunity for each system and for each step of the cycle. This clearly may be represented by a set of curves. The Safeguards Control Systems studied vary from the one that only includes Traditional Safeguards Measures to the ones that integrate both Traditional Safeguards Measures to the ones stated at the Model Additional Protocol with growing strengthened measures from system to system. As may be clearly understood the integration of more and more strengthened measures to each system depends on the detection probability adopted to safeguard the fuel cycle. Under this assumption, the set of systems considered moves from the Traditional Safeguards System to a more strengthen system. The limitation at finding the upper limit depends on costs, which are also associated to the country resource availabilites and political decisions. In the paper, an equation relating the costs and the detection probability associated is assumed. This equation is applied to each considered system. From the cost analysis associated to the application of the different systems to the fuel cycle, an optimum Integrated Safeguards System (ISS) arouses. This optimum ISS lets us decide at which steps the safeguards measures should be strengthened to reach an appropriate result to meet safeguards goals. Some conclusions are overdrawn as a result of the above mentioned analysis but above all the development of this Mathematical Model attempts at finding a mathematical tool to make safeguards more efficient and effective.