Nuclear Weapons Proliferation Pathway Utility Attribute Weighting Survey

Year
2012
Author(s)
W. S. Charlton - Texas A&M University
David J. Sweeney - Texas A&M University
Abstract
An aspiring proliferator has many different options when selecting a pathway to develop nuclear weapons. Proliferation pathways are characterized by the decisions taken, facilities built, technologies developed, and materials produced in pursuit of a nuclear weapon by a state proliferator. It is assumed that a proliferator will choose a pathway that will optimize a desired set of attributes according to the goals of the proliferator. These desirable attributes of a proliferation program have been generalized as the time to the first deliverable weapon, nuclear weapon production rate (analogous to desired deterrent size), program concealment & survival probability, non-detection probability, overall nuclear weapon reliability, and overall program sustainability. A survey was conducted to determine the importance of these nuclear weapon attributes and nuclear weapon production program attributes to a state that has made a decision to proliferate. The survey was administered through an interactive website and results were gathered from experts in the areas of nuclear weapons, proliferation, and international security as well as the general public. The results of this survey will be incorporated into a multi-attribute utility analysis function for simulating state proliferator decision making within the nuclear weapons latency tool under development at Texas A&M University. This paper presents an analysis of the results of the survey.