Nuclear Security: The Next Ten Years

Nuclear security is at an important inflection point, and the next ten years will provide opportunities to build upon the progress made in the last ten. The first Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, DC was held ten years ago. These summits drew considerable attention to nuclear security, inaugurating a period of significant achievements in the effort to strengthen nuclear security around the world. In 2010, 32 countries possessed weapons-usable nuclear material. Today, that number is down to 22. Nuclear security capacity building has grown through diverse training opportunities, the network of Nuclear Security Support Centers, and the growing use of exercises. The Amended Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material (CPPNM) entered into force, and States Parties are preparing for the first review in 2021. There is greater awareness and action to counter cyber threats. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) continues to provide assistance and guidance on improving nuclear security through tools like the Integrated Nuclear Security Support Plans and missions like the International Physical Protection Advisory Services. The International Conference on Nuclear Security (ICONS) at the IAEA in February 2020 provided an opportunity to reflect on this progress and look to future challenges. This paper will provide a high level review of that conference, identifying important trends and outcomes. The paper will also argue for the need to shift focus from threat reduction, following significant success in the ”sprint” of securing the most vulnerable material, to a focus on sustainable risk management approaches, maintaining the same level of security over the “marathon” of long term nuclear material possession. As the nuclear security community looks forward, it will be important to identify new approaches to maintain nuclear security around the world to ensure that mankind can still benefit from the peaceful applications of nuclear materials.