Nuclear Power and Proliferation/Terrorism

It is widely viewed that an expansion of nuclear power would have positive energy, economic and environmental benefits for the world. However, there are concerns about the economic competitiveness, safety and proliferation and terrorism risks of nuclear power. Public acceptance is largely tied to these and other issues. While the threat has been exaggerated by critics, there is an undoubted connection between the civil and military atom and the threats posed to the nuclear enterprise are real and could involve state or substate actors, or state support of substate actors. Nuclear proliferation can involve everything from a virtual capability to the production of weapon-usable materials to a full weapon program. Nuclear terrorism can range from the threat or use of a nuclear weapon to the dispersal of radiological material and the attack of nuclear facilities or materials in transit. Not only are there different forms of nuclear proliferation and terrorism, but each differs in terms of factors such as materials/facilities involved, technological sophistication required of the state or substate actors, intentions of the state or substate actors, etc., and most notably, effects. These threats also vary widely in both their likelihood and in public perceptions of their consequences. Accordingly, the threat environment is critical to any dramatic growth in nuclear power in the United States, and it is important to properly assess the threat and to understand its impact on nuclear power. To address these difficult issues, this paper will provide a framework for assessing the relations between nuclear power and nonproliferation, to baseline the real connections and to assess past, present and future tools and approaches to ensure that the growth of nuclear power does not lead to a rise in the proliferation/terrorism threats.