Year
2013
Abstract
In the framework of current IAEA efforts to increase the ability of the safeguards system to provide independent and credible assurances that States are honouring their safeguards obligations and to further strengthen its capability of early detection of the possible misuse of nuclear material or technology for proscribed purposes, the role of the data collected by inspectors in nuclear fuel cycle facilities is re-affirmed and expanded. Amongst other developmental perspectives, verification data acquired for nuclear material accountancy (NMA) can be used to assess the performance of the State System of Accounting for and Control of nuclear materials (SSAC) and to provide one of the main factors that allow an objective determination of the verification level to implement in a State. Further, NMA data analysis engenders opportunities to facilitate synergies with facility operators and State or regional inspectorates. The cornerstone of NMA is the timely detection of the diversion of declared nuclear material from peaceful activities. The non-diversion of declared nuclear material is one of the technical conclusions the Agency may reach through material balance evaluation (MBE), once the IAEA safeguards data analysts have established the correctness and completeness of the State reports. MBE is a complex analytical activity that combines all quantitative declared information and inspection verification results. Given their fundamental nature, MBE activities are rooted in the criteria-driven approach which has long underpinned the Agency’s conclusions under comprehensive safeguards agreements (CSA). While MBE principles and methodologies remain valid in the framework of a State level evaluation, their scope, currently restricted to material balance areas (MBA) within facilities, needs to be expanded to the analysis of the nuclear material flow and balance of the State as a whole. This evolution is an opportunity to make the technical approaches underlying NMA more versatile, taking into account safeguards approaches such as random inspection schemes and providing an adequate assessment of the SSAC performance. Obstacles to this development include the need to reconcile different accountancy and measurement systems that may coexist within a State. These challenges should be addressed so that consistent spatial and temporal support for a dynamic analysis of nuclear fuel cycle data can be constructed in the context of ongoing State evaluation. In this paper, we present prospective technical objectives of State level NMA and we discuss opportunities they offer for analytical advances.