Year
2006
Abstract
We describe forecasts of electricity generation capacity derived from our adaptation of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) of the DOE Energy Information Agency (EIA) that could be used to project siting, transportation and disposal needs for future nuclear energy scenarios. In turn, these forecasts may be used to identify the technology development that should be underway to manage fuel and waste inventories. This analysis indicates that sustained growth rates for nuclear power in the United States in the magnitude 1.6% to 4% per year are reasonable targets. Justification for these hypotheses comes from several sources including (1) the increases in the cost of gas and petroleum; (2) government initiatives underway to indemnify investors in nuclear power; and (3) the advantage of less greenhouse gases from nuclear power compared to fossil fuels. We have investigated key variables that govern the amount of nuclear generating capacity that may be built and the rate at which it may be brought on line. Using the basic NEMS software used by EIA, we develop several nuclear energy scenarios based on evolving trends in cost, fuel prices and regulation. The NEMS system enables a comprehensive analysis of future nuclear energy prospects while considering the entire United States energy economy. The impact of fuel costs, regulation, government incentives and capital requirements can be studied in comparison to other energy sources using the widely known analytical system.