Nuclear Conundrum: India and Pakistan

The Indian sub-continent is a reluctant nuclear power with its culture steeped in Gandhian non- violence. It shares borders with China and Pakistan, two nuclear-armed races, with both of which it has territorial tension. India has come across many extraneous catastrophic threats and has for long had to endure the vicissitudes of a dangerous nuclear neighbourhood. India’s nuclear doctrine professes ‘credible minimum deterrence’ and is structured around a ‘no first use’ stance. Pakistan has the fastest growing nuclear weapons programme in the world. Pakistan is preparing for what its key functionaries and analysts have called “full spectrum deterrence”. The Pakistan army’s continuing efforts to arm short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) with nuclear warheads will adversely impact deterrence stability on the Indian subcontinent as tactical nuclear weapons are inherently destabilising and invariably escalatory. The relationship between India & Pakistan has always been under tremendous stress. The Line of Control (LOC) in Kashmir is often regarded as the most dangerous borders in the world. The cross-border terrorism attacks around Kashmir Valley in India have only increased exponentially in the past decade. The new Indian administration with Prime Minister Modi has given freedom to Indian Military to respond to any cease-fire violations with massive retaliation. The surgical strikes and massive shelling at border from the Indian military is a confirmation of that. This paper analyses the new proliferation challenges that face up in attaining nuclear supremacy by either nations. Pakistan moving towards TNW (Tactical Nuclear Weapons) to counter India’s conventional military growth has been perceived with great criticism by the Indian authorities. In response to this India might consider a change in its no first use posture. These situations only worsen and weaken the non- proliferation regime as both nations will proceed towards vertical proliferation for the sake of attaining supreme nuclear deterrence towards each other. We have also included a hypothetical case scenario of probable escalation of diplomatic and military tension between the two nations leading to probable use of nuclear weapons and the aftermath of it.