A NONPROLIFERATION IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF THE GNEP ALTERNATIVES

In January 2009, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nonproliferation and International Security released a draft Non-Proliferation Impact Assessment (NPIA) of the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP). The draft NPIA analyzes the U.S. domestic nuclear fuel alternatives identified in the draft GNEP Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) for their potential impacts on the risk of nuclear proliferation and on U.S. nonproliferation goals. GNEP started as an initiative by the U.S. Department of Energy to offer a framework for worldwide use of nuclear power while reducing the risks of nuclear proliferation and the impacts of radioactive waste. The GNEP PEIS addresses the environmental impacts of U.S. domestic fuel cycle choices, including possibly closing the nuclear fuel cycle; the NPIA addresses the nonproliferation impacts of those same choices. In evaluating the proliferation risk associated with the GNEP fuel cycle alternatives, the NPIA considers both policy and technical factors. The policy evaluation draws on objectives such as discouraging the spread of enrichment and reprocessing technology, minimizing stocks of separated plutonium, promoting proliferation resistant technology, and improving international safeguards. The technical evaluation draws on the Proliferation Resistance/Physical Protection methodology used in other technical studies and considers factors such as the attractiveness and availability of nuclear materials in the fuel cycle and the cost and difficulty of applying safeguards to the relevant facilities. The draft NPIA finds that recycling of spent fuel may offer opportunities for the United States to discourage the spread of enrichment and reprocessing technologies by participating in comprehensive nuclear fuel services. However, by separating relatively attractive materials from spent fuel, recycling also introduces risks compared to the current once-through fuel cycle. The draft NPIA acknowledges the shared role the international community has in protecting against the misuse of sensitive technologies. The draft NPIA has been released to the public during the official public comment period for the draft PEIS. Insertion of a nonproliferation impact assessment before new facilities are proposed offers a timely opportunity for comprehensive discussion as well as opportunity to minimize proliferation risk as peaceful use of nuclear energy grows. This paper will report on initial public and expert reactions to the draft NPIA.